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Operations

Scaling to 17 tons/day: demand forecasting & Kaizen

How a co-founded detergent manufacturer nearly doubled daily production and cut inventory costs 45% with home-built forecasting models and Kaizen discipline.

OperationsForecastingKaizenManufacturing

The problem

A young consumer-goods manufacturer was growing fast (~45% CAGR) but inventory costs and production variability were eating margin. Demand was volatile across multiple cities in Tigray, and capacity had to grow without proportional working capital.

The approach

Built demand forecasting models from sales and seasonality data to plan raw material purchasing and production runs. Applied Kaizen methodology on the line — root-cause analysis on defects, standardized work, and incremental layout changes. Negotiated structured supplier contracts to stabilize input costs.

The outcome

Daily production capacity grew from 9.5 to 17 tons. Inventory costs fell 45%. Production yield improved 17% with lower defect rates. Gross profit rose 23% on the back of supplier negotiations and channel expansion.

Business value

Operating proof that data-driven planning and disciplined process improvement can nearly double output while cutting working capital — the same playbook I now apply with MBA-grade analytics.

Scaling the factory

Daily production capacity (tons/day), co-founded detergent manufacturer

Toolkit

Excel Demand forecasting Kaizen Supplier negotiation